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The Renminbi: The Political Economy of a Currency
Although the U.S. Treasury has repeatedly stopped short of labeling China a "currency manipulator" in its twice-yearly reports to Congress, it has consistently pressured China to allow the RMB to appreciate at a faster pace and to let the currency fluctuate more freely in line with market forces. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and many economists have also argued for faster appreciation and a more flexible exchange-rate policy as part of a broader program of "rebalancing" the Chinese economy away from its traditional reliance on exports and investment and toward a more consumer-driven growth model. Partly in response to these pressures, but more because of domestic considerations, China has allowed the RMB to rise by about 25 percent against the U.S. dollar since mid-2005. Yet the pace of appreciation remains agonizingly slow for the United States and other countries in Europe and Latin America whose manufacturing sectors face increasing competition from low-priced Chinese goods.
The international conversation over the RMB remains perennially vexed because China and its trade partners have fundamentally divergent ideas on the function of exchange rates. The United States and other major developed economies, as well as the IMF, view an exchange rate simply as a price. Consistent intervention by China to keep its exchange rate substantially below the level the market would set is, in this view, a distortion that prevents international markets from functioning as well as they could. This price distortion also affects China's own economy by encouraging large-scale investment in export manufacturing, and discouraging investment in the domestic consumer market. Thus it is in the interest of both China itself and the international economy as a whole for China to allow its exchange rate to rise more rapidly.
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